Confidence Index Detail

How the index is calculated

Starts near 50, then adds four components to get a raw score, which is smoothed and anchored before publish:

• Price momentum ±30: blends the day change with deviation from the 5-day / 20-day moving averages.
• Premium structure ±20: ADR premium vs common shares around a ~5% neutral baseline.
• Trading volume ±20: KRX + 7709 volume vs 20-day average; volume with the trend adds, against the trend subtracts.
• Market expectations ±30: Polymarket when available; otherwise ADR premium momentum and leveraged-ETF proxy.

Components are tanh-compressed; the published score is a 3-day weighted smooth (45% today / 35% prior / 20% two days ago) to cut day-to-day noise.

Scaled so the KRX closing all-time-high day (currently 2026-06-22) maps to 100; later highs may exceed 100 — no hard cap, no floor.

Component bars show the raw day contributions; the headline score is smoothed and scaled, so they may not sum exactly.